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By Jiao Donghua, Research Team on “Prospect of U.S. Presidential Election”, China Development Research Foundation

Research Report, No. 237, 2019 (Total 5737) 2019-12-23

Abstract: State elections have been held respectively in Kentucky, Mississippi and Louisiana since November 2019 and Virginia, a swing state (or purple state), has also elected its new State Legislature. Among them, the Democratic candidates won governor elections in two of these states, and have taken full control of Virginia State Legislature in nearly two decades for the first time. These local elections have reflected some new trends and have certain reference value for judging the result of U.S. presidential election in 2020. First, a sound economic landscape does not always guarantee the triumph of the candidates, for President Trump’s administrative style is not welcomed by some voters supporting the Republican Party. Second, the Democratic Party has strengthened is control over elections in suburban counties and has won victories in elections in several deep red states, showing the possibilities that some swing states might turn blue in 2020. Third, to defeat Trump, the Democrats need to raise the voter turnout rates of the ethnic minorities.

Key words: the US general election, African-American voters, the Democratic Party