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Global crisis pushing 35m back into poverty: World Bank

(Xinhua)
Updated: 2009-04-25 09:38

WASHINGTON -- The global crisis is pushing some 35 million people back into poverty and vulnerability in Europe and Central Asia, the World Bank said Friday.

"After enjoying a decade of strong growth and poverty reduction, the countries of Eastern Europe and Central Asia (ECA) are now seeing the global economic and financial crisis push almost 35 million people back into poverty and vulnerability, or about one-third of the people that had escaped from it over the last ten years," the World Bank said at its regular regional economic briefing at the World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings.

Nearly 90 million of the region's 480 million people -- about 18 percent of the population -- have moved out of poverty and vulnerability since 1999. But these gains are at risk as a result of the financial crisis, according to a press release obtained by Xinhua.

Today, almost 40 percent of the 480 million are still considered poor or vulnerable. But the number of poor and vulnerable people is now expected to rise throughout the region, increasing by about 5 million people for every 1 percent decline in GDP, says the press release.

By the end of 2009, poverty and vulnerability is expected to rise by 5 percent, which means almost 25 million more poor or vulnerable. And this will further increase by an additional 10 million to a total of 35 million people by the end of 2010.

"A human crisis is looming in the Europe and Central Asia Region," said Shigeo Katsu, World Bank Vice President for the Europe and Central Asia Region.

"Within 10 months of the crisis, countries have started to lose the poverty gains made over the last 10 years, says the press release. "This is a human crisis that is going largely unnoticed in the talk of the 'global financial and economic crisis.'"

Relatively high current account deficits, elevated external debt levels, very rapid credit growth, and a consumption boom financed by foreign currency borrowing created vulnerabilities in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), the Baltics, and some Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries.

On the other hand, sharp drops in commodity prices brought growth in economic powerhouses of the eastern part of the Region to an abrupt halt and hit the less well-off parts of the CIS very hard.

For these reasons, ECA countries for now have been hit relatively early and with greater severity than other developing regions.

In particular, the effects of the crisis are being felt through three key transmission mechanisms -- financial, product, and labor markets.

In the financial sector, rollover risks for countries with high current account deficits and volatility in foreign exchange markets have created a highly uncertain environment.

Industrial output is down with some countries experiencing double-digit declines in early 2009 compared to a year ago.

Unemployment is on the rise with unprecedented job losses in some countries and others poised for double-digit unemployment in the near future.

"This will be a deeper crisis than expected, and the forecasts for Eastern Europe and Central Asia may still be too optimistic," said Indermit Gill, Chief Economist for the Europe and Central Asia, World Bank. "Past crises indicate that capital flows do not quickly recover to pre-crisis levels -- so adjustments required are now much larger than anticipated."

Social policy actions should be a priority for the region, says the press release.