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IMF: World economy to shrink in 2009, first time in 60 years

(Xinhua)
Updated: 2009-03-19 23:07

WASHINGTON - The world economy is expected to contract in 2009 for the first time in 60 years as advanced economies will shrink sharply, the International Monetary Fund said on Thursday.

Despite major stimulus packages announced by many economies, trade volumes have shrunk rapidly, while production and employment data suggest that global activity continues to contract in the first quarter of 2009, the IMF said in a new assessment of the global economy.

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Global activity will contract by 0.5 to 1 percent on an annual average basis, the first such fall in 60 years, the IMF said in an analysis provided to the Group of Twenty (G20) industrialized and emerging market economies.

Advanced economies will suffer deep recessions in 2009, while the United States will contract 2.6 percent, the assessment said.

Leading economies in the Group of Seven are expected to experience the sharpest contraction for these countries as a group in the post-war period by a significant margin.

The IMF said that in the fourth quarter of 2008 global GDP contracted by 5 percent at an annualized rate. The US economy contracted 6.2 percent in the fourth quarter, while Japan's shrank 13 percent.

Global growth is still forecast to stage a modest recovery next year, conditional on comprehensive policy steps to stabilize financial conditions, sizeable fiscal support, a gradual improvement in credit conditions, a bottoming of the US housing market, and the cushioning effect from sharply lower oil and other major commodity prices, IMF said.

In the analysis, the IMF called on G20 governments to take steps to relieve their financial systems of distressed assets and free up credit.

"Turning around global growth will depend critically on more concerted policy actions to stabilize financial conditions as well as sustained strong policy support to bolster demand," the IMF said.