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Better statistics help sound policy-making
2005-12-30
China Daily
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is pondering a range of technical and managerial reforms, according to China's top statistician.
The body has pledged to strengthen the service industry census a traditional weak point. This was the main force behind last year's underestimated gross domestic product (GDP), which was uncovered by the latest nationwide economic census.
Economic and social statistics for particular regions will be determined by higher-level authorities, instead of through the current self-report approach that applies to relevant regional authorities.
The NBS has given survey teams at local levels more responsibility and independence to answer directly to the central bureau. It is considering an independent "vertical management" system for local statistics bureaux.
The national bureau is also pushing for a revision of the Statistics Law to make it better able to safeguard the independent nature of statisticians.
Independence is crucial for statistical accuracy. Given China's current way of promoting government officials, GDP remains the paramount concern of many local officials, who sometimes pressure local statisticians into artificially inflating figures to serve their political interests.
To present the public with the true costs of economic growth, the NBS will release energy consumption figures for the production of every 10,000 yuan (US$1,235) of GDP next year. Indices to be publicized also include the consumption of electricity and release of industrial pollution.
This goes beyond the scope of the economic survey, giving meaning to figures and contributing to the promotion of an environmentally-friendly and pro-social mode of development the scientific concept of development.
The changes implemented by the NBS will not only improve the technical accuracy of economic and social figures, but also play a role in promoting rational and balanced economic and social development, the ultimate goal of development.
Statistics, due to technical reasons, cannot be absolutely accurate. This is true of even elite developed economies, which boast the most sophisticated methods and statisticians.
China has made relentless efforts to bring economic statistics closer to reality. The latest national economic census has taught the country's statisticians many things. More accurate statistics will support sound policy-making, which benefits the economy as a whole.
More importantly, revisions in statistical methods, prompted by problems exposed in the process of carrying out the census, will continue to improve the accuracy of statistics in the long run.
The inadequate survey of the service industry and failure of the consumer price index system to increase the weight of housing and medical costs testifies to the need to strengthen our statistical calculations.
But just as we are fumbling on the road to building a mature market economy that is in line with China's situation, so Chinese statisticians are trying to figure out effective ways to both reflect the country's unique economic landscape and conform to international standards.
Central statisticians do not deny there is much room for further improvement, and have promised to take action. The changes scheduled for the coming years are a sign of commitment to self-improvement.
The success of reforms hinges not only on the will of the NBS, but also on unequivocal support from the central leadership and other relevant departments.
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