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By Zhang Yunhua, Department of Rural Economy, DRC

Research Report, No.77, 2018 (Total 5352) 2018-5-4

Abstract: The connotation of grain security is smaller than that of food safety. The essence of grain security is food safety. The core of food safety is grain. Excluding imported soybeans and price-inverted grain imports, China’s real grain self-sufficiency rate is high enough. Considering grain supply and demand, international trade, grain in stock, and comprehensive supply capacity, China should lower the grain self-sufficiency criteria and re-set the self-yield rate and self-sufficiency rate of rations, cereal, grains and others in different levels. During the past 40 years of rural reform, there have been several periods, especially the recent years, when China's grain supply exceeds demand. In 2017, China’s per capita grain output, per capita grain availability (including net imports but excluding soybeans) and per capita grain availability including end-of-year stock, have reached 445 kg, 468 kg, and 637 kg respectively. Since 2010, China's per capita grain (cereal) output has been consistently higher than the global average. This paper proposes to establish the annual per capita grain output of 400 kg as the baseline for grain security regulation, and combine the per capita food availability indicators to formulate food control mechanisms of different levels.

Key words: grain security, food safety, self-sufficiency rate of grain, per capita grain output, per capita grain availability