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By Yang Guangpu & Yang Kun, Research Team on “Risk Prevention and Countermeasures in the Economic Transformation Period”, DRC

Research report No.185, 2017 (Total 5260) 2017-12-19

Abstract: In view of the historical facts, economic risks are generally covered and hedged amid rapid economic growth and might not be easily detected. However, with the deceleration of economic growth in the transformation period, the deep-seated problems and structural changes in economic performance will loom up and various risks are more likely to be released across the board. Based on Japan’s economic operation during the past two transformation periods after World War II, this paper gives an illustration of the economic risks Japan had experienced in the past two events and narrows down Japan’s policy measures in terms of risk prevention and control to the following points. First, China needs to enhance its understanding of economic transformation and the potential changes of growth rate to avoid wrong judgment of the overall economic performance and the adoption of improper policies. Second, it needs to focus on the effectiveness of financial stimulus policies. Third, it needs to keep vigilant on asset price bubbles as it adopts easy monetary policies. Fourth, instead of purely relying on stimulus policies to prevent risks during economic transformation period, it needs to push ahead with effective structural reforms. Fifth, it needs to attach importance to international policy coordination in implementing relevant policies.

Key words: the period of economic transformation, risk prevention and control, experience, Japan