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By Deng Yusong, DRC

2017-8-10

In the second half of 2012 and the first half of 2013, the living condition in China’s cities and towns was that averagely speaking each family had one house. The problem of housing shortage was initially solved, enabling China’s housing market to enter a new phase in which the aggregate housing supply and demand was basically balanced whereas imbalanced development still existed in some part of China. In the future, the absolute number of newly-started housing projects will decline, the sales of newly-built housing and the number of completed housing will drop and the growth rate of investment will slow down. As a result, the growth rate of housing prices will fall back in normal cases. The government needs to pay close attention to the changing performance of the housing market in different periods and establish a mechanism in which the number of urbanized rural population is closely related with the land used for construction projects so as to avoid the risks of oversupply and the problems of high housing prices caused by housing shortage. The policy of equalizing rental housing and housing sales based on the owners’ property right represents the equalization of public resources, which is a progressive process and is required to be carried out in light of local conditions. The channels of housing supply should be diversified and free competitions in the same market should be encouraged to develop a unified housing market system so as to make the market performance become safe and sound.

The future trend of housing market performance. In the days beyond, the large amount of investment increase and housing sales and price rise may hardly occur in the housing market. The absolute number of newly-started housing projects will decline, and the sales volume of newly-built houses, the number of completed projects and the growth rate of investment will all fall back. As a result, the increase rate of housing prices will fall across the board. Therefore, when observing the future trends of China’s housing market performance, the government needs to be aware of the changes of the housing market in the new era and have a clear understanding of the market features and the development rules in the new phase.

The risks in the current housing market. The major risks in housing markets of the advanced countries including Japan all loomed up after the aggregate of housing supply and demand stroke a balance. In light of the big picture, some countries would implement the policy of low interest rate to stabilize the economic growth after the growth rate of the economy falls down, which is the main reason leading to bubbles in the housing markets of most economies. As the policy of lowering interest rate cannot exert a lasting influence, the bubbles are likely to burst once the interest rate is rapidly raised. During such a period, the government needs to implement effective measures to avoid three risks. First, the government needs to establish a mechanism of down payment and the reverse adjustment of interest rates to avoid the systematic risks of bubbles in the housing market. Second, the government needs to pay close attention to the changes of the housing market in different periods and establish the mechanism in which the number of urbanized rural population is closely related with the land used for construction projects so as to avoid the risks of housing oversupply and the high housing prices caused by housing shortage. Third, the government needs to be on guard against liquidity risks.

The cycle of destocking commercial houses in China’s first-and-second-tier cities has become prolonged while that of the third-and-forth-tier cities has become shortened. Several issues need to be observed relating to the lasting destocking in the third-and-forth-cities. First, the government needs to have a basic understanding of the housing supply and demand in the market and pay special attention to the number of per household housing in certain markets. Second, the economic vitality should be valued in certain cities.

China’s housing market will shift towards rental housing in the future, while the process is a progressive one and needs to be handled in a differentiated manner according to local conditions. First, rental housing market and sale market are interconnected with each other but are also different from each other. Second, houses are the main assets of most households in China. Therefore, the government needs to face up to the issue of housing prices. Third, the channels of housing supply should be diversified to allow free competitions in the same market so as to develop a unified housing market system and ensure a sound market performance.