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China’s Export Situation in the First Half of 2016 and Export Outlook for the Whole Year
2016-11-15
By Zhao Fujun
Research Report Vol.18 No.4, 2016
I. Basic Information of Surveyed Companies
A total of 584 valid questionnaires were collected from this survey. If all are grouped by ownership, private enterprises account for the majority, 83.4% of all companies in the survey; if grouped by scale, small firms with less than 500 employees account for the most, 94.5% of the total; if grouped by export destination, exporters oriented to Europe, other regions, US, other BRICS countries take up 36.0%, 28.6%, 17.8% and 6.1%, respectively; if grouped by industry, enterprises in textile and apparel industry, machinery and equipment industry, meal and metal products industry account for 27.6%, 11.0% and 8.4%, respectively. The survey polls firms in 26 provinces and cities which are representative of the population. If all are grouped by region, firms in Zhejiang Province account for 38.7%, which ranks the top in terms of the number of firms in the survey; firms in Jiangsu Province follow next, accounting for 12.2%.
II. Export Growth of Surveyed Companies from January to May 2016
Based on the survey results and comparison with the results from the surveys in last spring (for the period from January to May 2015) and last fall (for the period from January to October, 2015), several features in export growth of the surveyed companies for the period from January to May 2016 are as follows. 1. Export situation gets tougher than the same period last year with only 10% enterprises achieving increase in export The survey results show that 12.1% of the firms have export growth from January to May this year (including one group with growth rate of 5% to 19%, and another group with over 20% growth); 47.6% of the companies maintain basically unchanged growth, while 40.3% see a decline in export (including one group with a decline of 5% to 19%, and another with a decline of over 20%). Compared with the previous two surveys, much more companies report declined exports in this survey than in last spring, but fewer than in last fall; the percentage of firms with export growth is much lower than that in last spring, and slightly lower than in last fall; larger number of companies report unchanged export growth compared with last spring and fall. It can be said that export growth continues to go down during the period from January to May in 2016, implying a much tougher situation compared with the same period last year, but slightly better than last fall.
2. Small companies face tougher export situation than their medium-sized counterparts This survey mainly focuses on small and medium-sized companies. The results show 24.0% medium-sized companies see export growth in the period from January to May 2016, which is 12.4 percentage points higher than small exporters; 24.0% of the medium-sized companies see declined exports, 17.1 percentage points lower than small exporters. These numbers show small enterprises face tougher export situation than their medium-sized counterparts. Compared with the results from the previous two surveys, fewer small companies see export growth than those in the surveys of last spring and fall; the percentage of medium-sized firms with export growth is lower than last spring, but 5.2 percentage points higher than last fall. Small firms with export decline is 13.6 percentage points higher than last spring, 10.5 percentage points lower than last fall; fewer medium-sized firms report export decline than last spring and fall; the number of small and medium-sized firms reporting unchanged export is higher than that in last spring and fall. Overall, the export situation for small and medium-sized companies in this survey continues to deteriorate, and becomes tougher than that in last spring, but better than last fall.
3. Textile and apparel industry faces the toughest export situation This survey shows 17.2% of the companies in machinery and equipment industry see export growth, a percentage higher than other industries; otherindustries like textile and apparel, chemical pharmaceuticals, non-metallic materials, metal and metal products, have similar percentage of firms reporting export growth; 44.1% of the companies in textile and apparel industry see declined exports, a percentage higher than other industries. This shows textile and apparel industry faces a more difficult export situation. In this survey, the percentage of firms in all industries see export decline is higher than last spring, but lower than last fall; except textile and apparel industry, firms in all industries which report export growth account for a lower percentage than last spring, but higher than last fall. It can be inferred that the export situation is getter tougher for textile and apparel industry than all industries.
4. Companies exporting to Europe have a relatively greater stress of declined exports As few companies exporting to ASEAN, Hong Kong of China, Macao of China, Taiwan of China, and Korea are included in this survey, it is hard to draw conclusion for this group of exporters. So, our focus of comparison is on companies exporting to Europe, other BRICS countries, Japan and US. In this survey, 9.6% of the companies export to Europe, a lower percentage than the firms exporting to US, Japan and other BRICKS countries; Firms with less export to Japan and other BRICS countries account for 43.4% and 47.2% respectively, higher than those exporting to Europe (40.5%) and US (41.3%). Compared with last spring and fall, the percentage of firms that report declined exports in all markets is higher than last spring, but lower than last fall; firms with growing export to Europe, US account for lower percentage than last spring and fall. Those with growing export to Japan and other BRICKS countries account for a lower percentage than last spring, but higher than last fall. In one word, firms exporting to Europe face large downward pressure.
III. Analysis of Export Performance of Surveyed Companies
1. Export prices of the companies in the survey continue to fall from a year earlier In the period from January to May of 2016, 14.5% of the companies see a rise or a sharp rise in the prices of their export products, a much lower percentage than last spring, but slightly higher than last fall; 58.4% of the firms report stable prices, higher than last spring and fall; 27.1% of the firms report a price decline, a much higher percentage than in last spring, but lower than last fall. It can be said, export prices continue to fall compared with last spring, but rebound compared with last fall. ...
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