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By Yu Bin & Wu Zhenyu, Research Department of Macro-economy of DRC

Research Report No 123, 2015 (Total 4808)

Abstract:

In the course of economic operation, supply and demand affect each other while macroeconomic performance and restructuring reinforce each other. Against the backdrop of the increasing downturn pressure for China's economy, this paper gives an analysis of the transitional changes, among numerous factors, that have a major bearing on the overall economic performance, as well as the motivity and key reasons inducing these changes. The major factors leading to China’s constant economic slowdown in recent years are as follows: the decline of the absolute number of working age population, the curtailed operation of real estate market after the average number of houses owned by one household exceeds one unit, the debt-ridden regional governments are unable to make further investment, and the sharp decline of global trade volume and its impact on China's export growth. The above-mentioned factors will keep China's economic growth lower than a potential one in the short run. These transitional changes will give expression to different development traits and impacts, but on the whole their multiplying effects are gradually weakening. With the release of traditional growth potential, the fostering of emerging growth forces and the institutional dividend stemmed from the deepening of reform and opening-up by the government, China's economy is hopefully to achieve a new equilibrium level with a medium-high growth speed.