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China’s Carrying Capacity for Mid- and Long-Term Liability and Systematic Risk
By Yu Bin 2013-06-12
ISBN: 9787802349551
Publisher: China Development Press
Issued: June 2013
The book studies the Central Government's debt capacity and systemic risk by starting the discussion of possible changes in China's financial revenue and expenditure in the period of slowed economic growth.
Studies show that China's asset-liability ratio is still at the average level in the world, considering the implicit debt and government assets calculated by conservative calculation. In addition, government debt only accounts for a small portion of GDP, so risks are under control.
But after economic growth slows, the fiscal expenditure growth rate will outrun the revenue growth rate, giving rise to a significant increase in China's deficit, which is projected to approach the international alert level after 2018. Maintaining economic sustainable growth and stable fiscal policy are the basic means for China to deal with future sovereign debt risk.
