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Zhao Jinping

Research Report No 021, 2001

I. Effect of Foreign Capital Utilization on Balance of Payments

(I) Effect on balance of capital and financial accounts

Capital and financial accounts in the Balance of Payments include capital account and financial account. Capital account registers capital transfers such as exemption of debts and account transfers of emigrates. The data in China's Balance of Payments mainly include payments made by Chinese citizens who emigrate abroad; whereas financial account records transactions in respect of change in China's foreign assets and title to external debts. As capital account involves a limited scope and is small in size, we do not make any specific analysis of it here. For the sake of simplicity, capital and financial accounts are briefly referred to as capital account below.

1. Features of China's capital account

Payments and receipts under capital account are overall reflections of capital flows. According to statistics, during the 1982-1999 period, China's capital account experienced a deficit in 6 years - 1982-1984, 1990, 1992 and 1998, and a surplus in the other 10 years, with a cumulative surplus of USD180.14 billion in the 18 years (Table 1). This shows that over the last two decades China has a net inflow of capital. In terms of structure, among payments and receipts under capital account, direct investment is the largest of all in surplus, securities investment as surplus sources of the capital account is not stable and usually turns out to be in deficit when economic growth goes downward remarkably and affects the balance between payments and receipts under the capital account. In most years, among the three kinds of investment-direct investment, securities investment and other investment, the last represents the greatest deficit factor, posing heavy pressure on the general balance of payments.

2. Balance of foreign capitals under capital account

In the capital account, three items - foreign direct investment(FDI), liabilities in securities investment and liabilities in other investment-represent net inflow of foreign capitals. We define their aggregate as balance of foreign capitals, the credit marks the increase of inflow of foreign capitals (assets of FDI in China, liabilities of securities and other investments), the debit marks the decrease of foreign capitals (assets of FDI in China, liabilities of securities and other investments), the balance between the credit and debit represents the net inflow of foreign capitals (Tables 1 and 2).

Table 1

	Cap. & Fin. Account (1)	Balance of foreign capt.(2)	D.F. Invest.		Securities Invest.		Other Invest.
			Bal. (3)	in China (4)	Bal.(5)	Liab. (6)	Bal.(7)	Liab. (8)
1982-85	887	13104	3083	3983	789	908	-2985	8213
1986-90	17825	33476	10708	14263	3074	4155	4043	15058
1991-95	99122	129530	99360	112673	7561	9239	- 7799	7618
1996-99	62303	187720	157836	166920	-6281	9612	- 89160	11188
Total	180137	363830	270987	297839	5143	23914	- 95901	42077

Notes: (1) = (3) + (5) + (7); (2) = (4) + (6) + (8); Data sources: STATEMENT OF BALANCE OF PAYMENTS by SAFE

Table 2 Structure of Balance of Capital Account (%)

	Cap. & Fin. Account (1)	Balance of foreign capt.(2)	D.F. Invest.		Securities Invest.		Other Invest.
			Bal. (3)	in China (4)	Bal.(5)	Liab. (6)	Bal.(7)	Liab. (8)
1982-85	100.0	1477.3	347.6	30.4	89.0	6.9	-336.5	62.7
1986-90	100.0	187.8	60.1	42.6	17.2	12.4	22.7	45.0
1991-95	100.0	130.7	100.2	87.0	7.6	7.1	-7.9	5.9
1996-99	100.0	301.3	253.3	88.9	-10.1	5.1	-143.1	6.0
Total	100.0	202.0	150.4	81.9	2.9	6.6	-53.2	11.6

Notes: (1), (3), (2), (5) and (7) represent percentage vs. (1); (4), (6) and (8) represent proportion vs. (2). Data sources: STATEMENT OF BALANCE OF PAYMENTS by SAFE

During the 1982-1999 period, foreign capital receipts and payments (balance) cumulated to be a surplus of USD363.83 billion, twice as much as that of capital accounts in the same period. That means, the net outflow of domestic capitals was only 50.5% of the net inflow of foreign capitals. Therefore, China’s capitals inflow is in net terms, and the huge surplus of foreign capital receipts and payments is the basic guarantee for realizing a surplus under capital account. These features are in conformity with the status of China as a developing country.

In the balance of foreign capitals, FDI in China represents the largest element for its surplus, which in accumulation amounted to USD297.84 billion in 18 years, accounting for 81% of the surplus of foreign capitals in the same period. Therefore, FDI is not only the greatest element for the surplus of foreign capital receipts and payments but also the base for a sustained surplus of FDI for a long time, contributing a great deal to the general surplus of China's capital account and even the balance of payments.

Regarding securities investment, a net increase is shown in China's overseas issuance of equity securities and bonds, indicating the net inflow of foreign capitals raised by stock and bond issuance. According to the statistics of balance of payments, during the 1982-1999 period the net income of foreign capitals from stock and bond issuance abroad reached USD23.91 billion, making up 6.6% of the surplus of foreign capitals, and contributing to a cumulative surplus in securities investment as a whole. Viewed from different stages, however, a deficit was recorded during the 1996-1999 period, mainly due to a drastic fall in the surplus of liabilities of securities investment in that period, lower than the increase of assets. It can be seen, therefore, that liabilities of securities investment as one source of foreign capital have a limited stimulative role in achieving a surplus of foreign capital receipts and payments and capital accounts.

The balance of liabilities of other kinds of investment represents the net inflow of foreign capitals in other forms. During the 1982-1999 period the cumulative balance of liabilities of other investments was a surplus of USD42.08 billion, accounting for 11.6% of the balance of all foreign capital receipts and payments, equal to 23.4% of the total surplus in the balance of capital receipts and payments, higher than the surplus of liabilities of securities investment. As the cumulative surplus is smaller than the deficit of other investments (- USD137.97 billion), however, it led to a deficit in the balance of foreign investments as a whole. Viewed from different stages, the surplus of other investments contributes to the balance of foreign capitals to a varied extent. During the 1982-1985 period the surplus of liabilities accounting for 62.7% of that of foreign capitals and being one of the three greatest factors for the surplus of foreign capitals utilized in three forms. During the 1986-1990 period the surplus of liabilities of other investments increased to USD15.06 billion, and its percentage in the surplus of foreign capitals reduced to 45%. And during the 1996-1999 period the surplus of liabilities is much smaller than the surplus of assets in size, with its percentage in the balance of foreign capital receipts and payments falling to 5-6%. That means, during the above-mentioned two periods, the role of other investment as the major form of absorbing foreign capital has changed. Generally speaking, because other investment as a form of introducing foreign capital is usually smaller than the increase of assets in size, a deficit is seen in the balance of other investment. Therefore, other investment is an uncertain factor affecting the balance of foreign capitals and capital accounts when foreign capitals (mainly trade-related credits) are utilized in such form, and its drastic decrease in times of uncertain economic growth more than often gives rise to a deficit in other investment receipts and payments and even in the balance of capital accounts.

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