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中國領導人將實施經濟改革
China's leaders to meet on economic reform

[ 2013-11-14 11:45]

來源：中國日報網

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China's new leadership holds a key meeting this weekend that state media are trumpeting as a likely "watershed" for economic reform, but analysts caution details of its decisions are likely to be vague and implementation gradual.

The four-day session of the full 376-strong Communist Party Central Committee begins Saturday at a closely guarded private hotel in Beijing.

Known as the Third Plenum, it traditionally sets the economic tone for a government's five-year term.

In the past, such meetings have been used to signal far-reaching changes in how China does business, and state-run media say that anticipation has been building.

The official Xinhua news agency proclaimed that the plenum "is expected to be a watershed as drastic economic policies will be unveiled".

Other reports have singled out land reform as a key issue, while a government think-tank called for dismantling the residency registration system known as hukou, which restricts access to medical insurance and other benefits for migrants.

Cai Hongbin, a professor at Peking University's Guanghua School of Management, said key issues such as urbanisation, the social safety net, taxation and financial reforms would be discussed.

"Historically, China has implemented ground-breaking reforms when the economy has faced some serious challenges," Nomura International economists in Hong Kong wrote in a report.

"However, we believe that pressures are not yet sufficient to demand such rapid implementation, while the reforms are more complex than they have been in the past."

Xinhua quoted experts including professors at the party's central school as saying any political reform would aim at "strengthening, not weakening" the organisation's leadership.

Cai said that, ultimately, economic reform cannot truly succeed without changes to how the government acts, such as reducing local authorities' interference in business.

"You can talk about all sorts of economic policy changes, in the end whether these policy changes will make a serious impact on the Chinese economy really depends on whether we will have serious government reforms," he said.

China's leadership says the economy, the world's second largest, needs to move away from reliance on state-financed investment projects and unleash the power of consumers and other private actors to propel growth.

Yao Wei, economist in Hong Kong, said: "The real test of Beijing's reform resolution will be the action taken in the following three to six months."

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中國的新領導層11月舉行了為期四天的大會，由376名共產黨中央委員會成員參加，為中國政府未來五年內的經濟發展制定計劃和方針，為發展奠定基調。

在過去，這樣的會議標志著中國經濟發展的深刻變革。新華社宣稱，十八屆三中全會預計將成為經濟發展的分水嶺，新的經濟政策將被揭曉。

其他報告指出這次會議將土地改革作為一個重要的議題。而政府的智囊機構呼吁廢除戶口登記制度，這個制度對于外出打工者來說，限制了他們享受醫療保險和其他福利的權利。

北京大學光華管理學院教授蔡宏斌說，會議上會討論一些重要的議題，例如，城市化、社會保障、稅收和金融改革。

“在歷史上，當經濟面臨一些嚴峻的挑戰時，中國會實施突破性的改革。”野村國際駐香港的經濟學家在一份報告中寫道。

“但是，我們相信，要求如此快速地去實現改革，壓力真的很大，因為當前的改革比過去更復雜。”

新華社引用中央黨校專家教授的話：任何政治改革都旨在“加強，而不是削弱”組織的領導的能力。

蔡說，若再不改變政府的行為，如地方政府減少對商務貿易的干涉，經濟改革基本上不能算是真正的成功。

他說：“你可以談論各種各樣的經濟政策的變化，但最后這些政策的變化是否影響中國的經濟，實際取決于政府是否有重大的改革措施。”

中國的領導階層說，作為世界第二大經濟體，中國的經濟需要減少對國有投資項目的依賴，利用消費者的力量和其他私有企業來推動經濟增長。

香港經濟學家姚煒說：“真正考驗中國改革決心的是接下來三到六個月內采取的改革措施和行動。”

（譯者 shltt 編輯丹妮）

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