中國經濟明年“降溫” GDP漲幅9.5%
China's economy seen growing 9.5 pct in 2007
[ 2006-11-13 15:34 ]
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China'a economic growth
is set to slow to 9.5 percent next year, according to
forcast. |
China's economic growth is set to slow to 9.5 percent next year, said
the State Information Centre, a research institute under the National
Development and Reform Commission, the country's top economic planner.
The centre, which made the forecast in a report published by the
official China Securities Journal on Monday, has forecast China's gross
domestic product will rise 10.5 percent in 2006.
China's GDP has grown 10 percent or more every year since 2003.
The centre cited both domestic and global reasons.
"The world economy is likely to grow steadily or slow slightly, with
average global oil prices slipping from 2006. Domestic cooling steps will
be implemented and further fine tuning is expected to continue," it said.
"Under these conditions, GDP will increase by 9.5 percent, one
percentage point slower than in 2006, with a potential growth range
between 8 percent and 10 percent," it said.
In 2007, growth in fixed asset investment will drop 6.5 percentage
points to 20 percent, while the consumer price index (CPI) is set to rise
about 2 percent, the centre predicted.
Growth in exports will slow by nearly 10 percentage points to 15
percent while import growth will fall by 7.5 percentage points to 14
percent, it said. China's trade surplus is projected at around $176.9
billion in 2007.
The centre proposed that growth in broad M2 money supply should be
limited to 16 percent, with new loans totalling 3 trillion yuan ($381
billion) and particularly strict controls on medium- and long-term
lending. ($1=7.8645 Yuan)
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(Reuters)
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據國家發改委下屬研究所國家信息中心預測，2007年中國經濟增長速度將降至9.5％。
國家信息中心的這一預測研究報告在本周一的《中國證券報》上發表。據估計，今年中國的GDP總量將增長10.5％。
從2003年以來，中國每年的GDP增長率都在10％以上。
國家信息中心從國內和國際兩方面對預測結果進行了分析：
“隨著今年的國際油價逐漸下滑，世界經濟可能將保持穩定增長或有所減慢。此外，我國也將采取進一步措施，防止經濟過快增長。”
“在這種背景下，明年中國的GDP增長率將比今年低1個百分點，為9.5％。經濟漲幅的變動范圍預計在8％至10％之間。”
據預測，2007年中國固定資產投資的增速將下降6.5個百分點，跌至20％；消費者價格指數將上漲2％。
出口和進口的增長速度將分別下跌近10個百分點和7.5個百分點，降至15％和14％。此外，2007年的貿易順差預計在1769億左右。
國家信息中心提出，2007年我國廣義貨幣供給的增幅應控制在16％，新貸款總額不應超過3萬億，尤其要嚴格控制中長期貸款。
（英語點津姍姍編輯）
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