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HONG KONG: Taiwan's real annual GDP plummeted 8.36 percent, year-on-year, in the last quarter of 2008. It was the sharpest plunge since the quarterly GDP numbers began being recorded in 1952, and it came on the back of a sharp weakening in domestic demand and a slump in exports.

Following the economy's 1.05 percent decline in the third quarter, Taiwan has entered into its first recession since the technology bubble burst nearly 7.5 years ago, and it is very likely the deepest and longest one on record.

Looking into 2009, exports growth should continue to be in double-digit negative territory for most of the year, as there are no significant signs of a trough emerging in the global economy.

Weakness in exports will continue to lead Taiwan's economy into difficult circumstances.

Its ripple effect will cause aggressive cuts in business capes and employment, resulting in weaker domestic demand.

Despite shopping voucher distribution and lower consumer prices, private consumption remains under pressure with the housing market slowing and the job market deteriorating.

We expect Taiwan's economy to experience the worst downturn in its history, contracting 4.50 percent in 2009, following a sluggish 2008.

In the wake of the staggering 8.36 percent year-on-year drop in the GDP last quarter, CBC slashed the rediscount rate by another 0.25 percent to a record low of 1.25 percent, suggesting a loose monetary policy stance.

This is the seventh-straight rate cut since September, with total rate cuts totaling 237.5 basis points, reducing the funding costs of both corporations and individuals.

The CBC stated that it would sustain accommodative monetary conditions to complement fiscal stimulus in supporting growth.

The faltering economy and inflation give room for more CBC rate cuts, but monetary easing is likely to have limited near-term effects on easing credit conditions.

Taiwan's key policy rate is now at a record low 1.25 percent, however. Domestic demand has remained anemic, continuing a decade-long period of sluggish loan growth.

With deposits accelerating to 8.70 percent year-on-year growth by the end of 2008, while loan growth was only 2.60 percent, year-on-year, Taiwan's loan-deposit ratio declined to 83.20 percent by December.

There remains ample liquidity in the banking system, but banks are reluctant to lend. And the government's fiscal-stimulus package for this year is equivalent to a modest 3.30 percent of the GDP.

We don't think the economy will receive enough of a counter-cyclical boost.

We believe there is room for the government to roll out more stimulus measures if the economic outlook deteriorates substantially.

Polaris Securities

(HK Edition 03/05/2009 page16)