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Crackdown on N. Korea strains US-South ties
(Reuters)
Updated: 2006-01-29 11:37
A U.S. crackdown on North Korean finances has not only hit Pyongyang hard but
also exposed a divide between Washington and Seoul that the two governments may
have trouble bridging, analysts said.
Washington and Pyongyang are digging in their heels over the financial
crackdown, and Seoul is looking for compromise.
But unless a solution is found soon, talks on ending North Korea's nuclear
weapons programmes -- one of the greatest threats to regional stability -- could
stumble.
Analysts said the financial crackdown problem is difficult to resolve because
it strikes at the heart of fundamental differences between Seoul and Washington.
"Much of the problem comes from the fact there is a clear mismatch of the top
priorities of South Korea and the United States," said Paik Hak-soon, head of
North Korea studies at Sejong Institute south of Seoul.
South Korea's priorities under President Roh Moo-hyun have been regional
peace, regional prosperity, engagement and eventual long-term unification with
the North, Paik said.
The Bush administration has been interested in fighting both terrorism and
military proliferation, he said, and it suspects that North Korea's illicit
activities have helped fund Pyongyang's nuclear weapons programmes.
Analysts also note the Bush administration is now trying to manage a showdown
with Iran over its own nuclear programmes and may be unable to focus fully on
North Korea at the moment.
ROH AT ODDS WITH WASHINGTON
South Korea's president took a swing at those in Washington who seek a hard
line against North Korea and said they sometimes seem to be seeking a collapse
of the regime.
"If the U.S. government tries to resolve the problem this way, there will be
friction and disagreement," Roh Moo-hyun told a news conference, referring to
U.S.-South Korea ties.
Pyongyang's reaction to the crackdown has been to say it would be unthinkable
to reconvene six-party talks on its nuclear arms programmes until Washington
lifts the financial limits.
Washington says it wants to separate the crackdown from the nuclear talks --
which include the Koreas, China, Japan, Russia and the United States -- and is
ready to return to the table.
Seoul would like to see a compromise under which counterfeiting is separated
from the six-party discussions, North Korea promises not to engage in illicit
activities and Washington is willing to let bygones be bygones, analysts said.
U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice made clear in an interview with
Reuters that Washington would not back down.
North Korea analysts say Pyongyang is feeling the pinch -- to the apparent
glee of U.S. hardliners who feel they have found an Achilles heel -- and North
Korean leader Kim Jong-il may have been looking for help from Beijing on a trip
this month to China.
SEOUL SEEKS THE MIDDLE GROUND
Roh has talked about becoming a regional "balancer", which analysts take to
mean that South Korea would back off slightly from its traditional alliance with
the United States and Japan and work to find middle ground with China and North
Korea.
Thomas Henriksen, a senior fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution
in California, pointed out that Roh's domestic political base supports standing
tough against the United States, including on the issue of North Korea.
"It caters to his own constituency, young people, people who are
anti-American, or who no longer feel obligated to the United States for what
happened in the Korean War," Henriksen said.
"It is a peg to hold up a lot of other grievances and problems between the
two countries," he told Reuters.
Kim Sung-han, head of North America studies at the Institute of Foreign
Affairs and National Security in Seoul, said Roh's tough comments on Wednesday
were meant as a direct message to Bush.
"Roh intended to send a message to Bush not to take the view of the
hardliners," he said, but added:
"Roh's remark is not going to be taken as a highly important variable in the
equation. Washington will take it as one of the many variables," Kim said.
Ultimately, analysts said, both countries know the stakes are too high for
them to let public squabbles derail cooperation.
"The differences between the United States and South Korea can be mediated,"
said Li Dunqiu, director of the Korean Peninsula Centre at the Development
Research Centre, a Chinese government think-tank.
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