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Study: US army stretched to breaking point
(AP)
Updated: 2006-01-25 07:25
Krepinevich did not conclude that U.S. forces should quit Iraq now, but said
it may be possible to reduce troop levels below 100,000 by the end of the year.
There now are about 136,000, Pentagon officials said Tuesday.
For an Army of about 500,000 soldiers — not counting the thousands of
National Guard and Reserve soldiers now on active duty — the commitment of
100,000 or so to Iraq might not seem an excessive burden. But because the war
has lasted longer than expected, the Army has had to regularly rotate fresh
units in while maintaining its normal training efforts and reorganizing the
force from top to bottom.
Krepinevich's analysis, while consistent with the conclusions of some outside
the Bush administration, is in stark contrast with the public statements of
Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld and senior Army officials.
Army Secretary Francis Harvey, for example, opened a Pentagon news conference
last week by denying the Army was in trouble. "Today's Army is the most capable,
best-trained, best-equipped and most experienced force our nation has fielded in
well over a decade," he said, adding that recruiting has picked up.
Rumsfeld has argued that the experience of fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan
has made the Army stronger, not weaker.
"The Army is probably as strong and capable as it ever has been in the
history of this country," he said in an appearance at the Paul H. Nitze School
of Advanced International Studies in Washington on Dec. 5. "They are more
experienced, more capable, better equipped than ever before."
Krepinevich said in the interview that he understands why Pentagon officials
do not state publicly that they are being forced to reduce troop levels in Iraq
because of stress on the Army. "That gives too much encouragement to the enemy,"
he said, even if a number of signs, such as a recruiting slump, point in that
direction.
Krepinevich is executive director of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary
Assessments, a nonprofit policy research institute.
He said he concluded that even Army leaders are not sure how much longer they
can keep up the unusually high pace of combat tours in Iraq before they trigger
an institutional crisis. Some major Army divisions are serving their second
yearlong tours in Iraq, and some smaller units have served three times.
Michael O'Hanlon, a military expert at the private Brookings Institution,
said in a recent interview that "it's a judgment call" whether the risk of
breaking the Army is great enough to warrant expanding its size.
"I say yes. But it's a judgment call, because so far the Army isn't broken,"
O'Hanlon said.
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