|
Leaders sound hopeful on Iraq troop cuts
(AP)
Updated: 2005-11-24 19:51 The Bush administration and
military leaders are sounding optimistic notes about scaling back U.S. troops in
Iraq next year, as public opposition to the war and congressional demands for
withdrawal get louder.
Contingency plans for a phased withdrawal include proposals to further
postpone or cancel the deployment of a Fort Riley, Kan., brigade and an option
to put a combat brigade in nearby Kuwait in case it is needed, said a senior
Pentagon official.
While military leaders would not confirm the size of possible withdrawals,
conversations with defense officials and analysts suggest troop levels could
drop below 100,000 next year, contingent on the progress of the Iraqi government
and its security forces. There are currently about 155,000 U.S. troops in Iraq.
The official, who asked not to be identified because plans are not final,
said stresses on the National Guard and Reserves are also factors.
On Wednesday, Pentagon officials would not confirm any reduction plans.
Defense Department spokesman Bryan Whitman said there has been "very positive"
development of Iraqi security forces, and he added that "we plan for every
possible contingency," including a smaller coalition force.
President Bush has refused to set a withdrawal timetable, and the
administration has consistently said U.S. troops will remain as long as needed.
Led by Vice President Dick Cheney, the administration has strongly opposed last
week's call by Rep. John Murtha (news, bio, voting record), D-Pa., for a U.S.
withdrawal within six months.
Public support for the war has fallen in recent weeks, fed by events such as
the 2,000th U.S. military death there and allegations of the secret imprisonment
and torture of some Iraqi prisoners by the Iraqi government.
In recent days, some administration and military officials have made
positive-sounding comments about a possible withdrawal.
Lt. Gen. John Vines, chief of the Multi-National Corps-Iraq, said Iraqi
security forces — which number about 212,000 now — are making excellent
progress, an oft-cited precondition for removing U.S. troops. He said 36 Iraqi
battalions are responsible for their own areas of operation.
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice told Fox News on Tuesday that the U.S.
would probably not need to maintain its current troop levels in Iraq "very much
longer." Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld told radio talk show host Sean
Hannity that the war would wind down over the next two years, and "we'll see the
coalition forces being able to pare down and pass over responsibility to Iraqi
Security Forces on an orderly basis" after the Dec. 15 elections.
The Washington Post, quoting anonymous sources, reported Wednesday that the
Pentagon tentatively plans to reduce the number of U.S. forces in Iraq early
next year by up to three of the 18 combat brigades.
"With the number of units available, they are coming to the point where they
simply were not going to have enough brigades," said Dan Goure, a military
analyst with the nonpartisan Lexington Institute, which studies public policy.
"There is a recognition that the number has to come down because of the stress
that was being placed on the force."
Goure added, "There is a plan that has been in the works for at least six
months with the idea that we possibly could reduce the number of troops."
Rumsfeld and others have said they expect U.S. forces to drop back down to
the base level of about 138,000 after the Dec. 15 election for Iraq's new
government. So far, the Pentagon has identified 92,000 troops who will be
rotated into Iraq through mid-2008, though Rumsfeld has cautioned that should
not be taken as a final number.
Officials have put off the deployment of the 1st Brigade, 1st Infantry
Division, based at Fort Riley, Kan., which was originally scheduled to deploy
before the election. That deployment has not yet been scheduled.
The troops currently in Iraq comprise 17 brigades and three additional
battalions — which add up to about another brigade. The three battalions are
scheduled to return home after the first of the year. A brigade normally numbers
between 3,500 and 5,000 soldiers, while battalions average about 800.
Basing a brigade in Kuwait, where it could train and be ready for any
emergency action, would not be an unexpected move. That country has long been
used as a staging area for troops entering and leaving Iraq.
|
