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Bird flu shaves less than 1 pct of Vietnam's GDP
By (Xinhua)
Updated: 2004-02-17 14:57

Vietnam's overall economic loss caused by bird flu will be less than one percent of the country's gross domestic product (GDP), if the disease does not transmit among humans.

The cost to the economy is estimated at 0.15 percent of GDP, or 58 million US dollars, if the outbreak recedes rapidly without requiring a massive culling of poultry and without affecting international tourist arrivals, according to a press release of the World Bank issued in Vietnam on Tuesday.

The cost will amount to 0.6 percent of GDP if the outbreak is contained relatively quickly with an output loss in the poultry sector equal to three months of economic activity, whereas international travel declines by 5 percent on an annual basis.

It will be 0.9 percent of GDP if the loss of output from poultry lasts for six months, and the negative impact of a decline in international arrivals is comparable to the one prompted by severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS).

In addition to the output loss, there will be a loss of capital due to the massive culling of fowls. If all the poultry of Vietnam had to be culled to contain the epidemic, costs could increase to 690 million dollars, or 1.8 percent of the annual GDP of Vietnam.

By Monday afternoon, bird flu hit 2,566 communes of 57 cities and provinces nationwide, killing and leading to the forced killing of nearly 37.7 million fowls, or 14.8 percent of the country's poultry population.

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