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Shanghai took a step forward in its bid to achieve a more rational population structure yesterday, revealing its first population forecast which will help local residents choose the best time to deliver babies.

"The city's sustainable development requires a rational population structure, while the city's present structure is unsuitable,'' Xie Lingli, director of Shanghai Population and Family Planning Committee, said at a news conference yesterday.

According to the forecast, the city currently has 7 million women of child-bearing age and is expected to see a marked increase in the number of new-born babies -- 120,900 -- by 2006. However, only 86,000 new babies will be born and the population will fall by 0.1 per cent this year.

Due to the last birth peak in the 1980s, the baby boom will last until 2009, and the city is expected to have 165,600 new-born babies that year.

The baby boom will result in relative peaks including schooling, employment and retirement as well as other social problems, according to Xie.

"The public have the right to know the situation and the population information we provided may help them make a better choice of when to deliver babies and avoid such risks,'' said Wei Longgeng, the committee's spokesman.

Starting this year, the committee will release the population forecast once or twice a year. Locals can also consult local 4,783 population and family planning service centres for more information and family planning advice.

Meanwhile, the committee will build a population information system covering local women of child bearing age and their spouses and children to better forecast population trends.

The committee also launched a survey covering 20,649 local people from 18 to 30 years old in six districts about their childbearing intentions.

The traditional concept which favours having baby boys has changed as the survey found that the number of people likely to have a daughter was 1.3 per cent higher than those who want a son. The survey also found 4.48 per cent did not want to have babies, while 81.47 per cent want to have just one child.

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