The powerful Sinaloa cartel is expected to go right on selling billions of dollars of illegal drugs despite the takedown of its legendary leader, Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman, who leaves in place a sophisticated distribution network and business plan.

Guzman's capture on Saturday was undoubtedly a major blow for a criminal ring likened to a Fortune 500 company - the loss of its chief executive coming on the heels of more than a dozen arrests of key lieutenants and lower-level operators in recent months.

Yet the cartel remains the major supplier of cocaine to the United States, and the arrest did not touch the cartel's immense political power, nurtured through the bribery of officials, or its thriving money laundering operations.

"As long as these other structures remain in place, all things being equal, Sinaloa will be able to continue to operate if not as normal, at least as the most powerful criminal organization in Mexico," said David Shirk, director of the University of San Diego's Justice in Mexico Project.

The longer-term fate of the cartel is more difficult to predict, however, as authorities pursue other top leaders.

Mexico's Secretary of the Interior Miguel Angel Osorio Chong said, so far, there's only speculation about how the cartel will replace Guzman, and whether other criminal groups will try to take over.

"We have to wait for real information, and when we have it, we will act," Osorio Chong said. "That will be part of our work, to see how they reorganize, how they accommodate. ... So we can keep them from resurging and replanting."

Guzman sought on Monday to prevent any extradition bid by the US, where he faces charges for smuggling massive amounts of cocaine. Osorio Chong said the Mexican government is expecting a US request and did not rule out extraditing Guzman.

On Monday, a senior Drug Enforcement Administration official said that intelligence indicates Guzman's partner, Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada, is likely to be the next chief of the Sinaloa cartel. The official agreed to discuss specific details of the arrest only if not quoted by name.

Guzman, who made Forbes magazine's lists of billionaires and most powerful people, was first among equals with Zambada and Juan Jose Esparragoza, known as "El Azul", both of whom remain at large.

The pair shared a clear vision, not only with respect to their adversaries but also with their business plan for trafficking cocaine, marijuana, heroin and methamphetamine in some 54 countries, said Guillermo Valdes, former head of Mexico's top domestic intelligence agency.

In other recent takedowns of major cartels, the Mexican government had to hit more than one leader before an organization was dismantled or scattered into smaller gangs.

One by one, the Arellano Felix brothers in Tijuana were arrested or killed over the last decade, as were the Beltran Leyva brothers from 2008 to 2011. Though the Mexican marines killed Zeta leader Heriberto Lazcano Lazcano in October 2012, the power of that brutal gang did not diminish until the other leader, Miguel Angel Trevino Morales, was arrested last summer.

Some predict Sinaloa is about to suffer the same fate.

Michael McCaul, chairman of the US House Committee on Homeland Security, said more arrests are expected because authorities penetrated the cartel's communications system in catching Guzman.

"Our ability to crack their code will not bode well for their future," he said, comparing Guzman's capture to the 1993 killing of Pablo Escobar of Colombia's Medellin cartel, once a powerful criminal organization. Its demise opened the way for other cartels to grow, including Sinaloa.

AP - AFP

(China Daily 02/26/2014 page12)