2. Revenue projections and expenditure appropriations for 2015
(1) General public budgets
Revenue in the central government's general public budget is projected to reach 6.923 trillion yuan, up 7% over the actual figure for 2014. Adding the 100 billion yuan from the Central Budget Stabilization Fund, revenue in 2015 should amount to 7.023 trillion yuan. Expenditure from the central government's general public budget is projected to reach 8.143 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.5% (up 8.8% after deducting the reserve funds). This consists of 2.5012 trillion yuan spent at the central level, 5.5918 trillion yuan paid out as tax rebates and transfer payments to local governments, and 50 billion yuan of reserve funds for the central budget. Total expenditure is projected to exceed total revenue, leaving a deficit of 1.12 trillion yuan, an increase of 170 billion yuan on 2014. The ceiling for the outstanding balance of government bonds in the central budget will be 11.190835 trillion yuan. The Central Budget Stabilization Fund will have a balance of 34.115 billion yuan.
Figure 3
Public Budget Balance of Central Government Finances in 2015
The revenue in local governments' general public budgets is projected to total 8.507 trillion yuan, up 7.5%. Adding the 5.5918 trillion yuan in tax rebates and transfer payments from the central government, the revenue of local governments is expected to reach 14.0988 trillion yuan. Local government expenditure from their general public budgets is projected to total 14.5988 trillion yuan, up 10.2%. The projected local government deficit thus stands at 500 billion yuan, an increase of 100 billion yuan over last year's budgeted figure. The State Council has given its approval for this deficit to be made up by the issuance of general bonds by local governments. It should be noted that as the budgets of local governments are prepared by local people's governments and submitted for approval to the people's congresses at their respective levels, related data is, at this time, still being collected. The revenue and expenditure figures for local budgets that appear above have been compiled by the central finance authorities.
The above figures on budgeted revenue and expenditure for 2015 already take into account the figures from government-managed fund budgets that are incorporated into general public budgets. This refers to the following: in accordance with the plan on improving the government budgeting system, which was approved by the State Council, as of January 1, 2015, the revenue and expenditures of eleven government-managed funds, such as local education surcharge, are to be transferred into general public budgets. While this means reductions to the budgetary revenue and expenditure for government-managed funds, the estimated figures on revenue and expenditure for the general public government budgets in 2015 and the base figures for revenue and expenditure in 2014 have been increased accordingly so that there will be little impact on the increase for projected revenue and expenditure in general government budgets for 2015.
Combining the central and local general public budgets, it is projected that national revenue will amount to 15.43 trillion yuan, up 7.3%. Including the 100 billion yuan from the Central Budget Stabilization Fund, total revenue available is expected to reach 15.53 trillion yuan. National expenditure is budgeted at 17.15 trillion yuan, up 10.6%. This will produce a national deficit of 1.62 trillion yuan, an increase of 270 billion yuan over 2014.
The projected figure for total expenditure in the central budget for 2015 is 8.143 trillion yuan, up 9.5% (an increase of 8.8% after deducting the reserve funds), to which a further 112.4 billion yuan is to be added in funds carried forward from previous years. The total expenditure in the central budget is divided into spending by the central government, spending on tax rebates, and transfer payments made to local governments.
Central government spending in 2015 is projected to total 2.5012 trillion yuan, up 10.4%, to which a further 27.9 billion yuan is to be added in funds carried over from previous years. The main expenditure items are arranged as follows:
The appropriation for agriculture, forestry, and water conservancy is 66.062 billion yuan, up 18.6%.
The appropriation for social security and employment is 72.93 billion yuan, up 4.2%.
The appropriation for education is 135.151 billion yuan (including 6 billion yuan carried forward from previous years), up 8.8%.
The appropriation for science and technology is 275.725 billion yuan (including 17 billion yuan carried forward from previous years), up 12.3%.
The appropriation for culture, sports, and the media is 24.921 billion yuan, up 6.4%.
The appropriation for medical and health care and family planning is 11.019 billion yuan, up 22.1%.
The appropriation for energy conservation and environmental protection is 29.125 billion yuan.
The appropriation for transport is 80.689 billion yuan.
The appropriation for stockpiling grain, edible oils, and other materials is 154.638 billion yuan, up 33.2%. This is mainly due to the increases in the subsidies to help pay expenses and interest on loans used for stockpiling grain and edible oils, subsidies for price differences in stockpiling grain and edible oils, and subsidies for making up losses in auctioning stockpiled cotton.
The appropriation for national defense is 886.898 billion yuan, up 10.1%.
The appropriation for public security is 154.192 billion yuan, up 4.3%.
The appropriation for general public services is 100.491 billion yuan.
The appropriation for natural resource exploration and information technology is 29.684 billion yuan.
A total of 4.9 billion yuan which has been carried forward from previous years is to be used for standardizing allowances and subsidies for public servants and implementing performance-based pay for the employees of public institutions.
Central government tax rebates and transfer payments made to local governments will amount to 5.5918 trillion yuan in 2015, up 8.1%, to which a further 84.5 billion yuan is to be added in funds carried over from previous years.
Of this amount, general transfer payments will account for 3.004537 trillion yuan (including 81.5 billion yuan carried forward from previous years), up 12.6%. General transfer payments for equalizing access to basic public services will reach 1.921508 trillion yuan (including 71.5 billion yuan carried forward from previous years), an increase of 14.8%, with transfer payments to some local governments to be increased for their bearing the expenses of implementing the policy of adjusting the salaries of employees of their offices and public institutions. General transfer payments for old revolutionary base areas, areas with concentrations of ethnic minorities, border areas, and poor areas will total 125.565 billion yuan, up 12%. General transfer payments for the basic pension and other purposes will come to 458.184 billion yuan (including 10 billion yuan carried forward from previous years), up 20.1%.
Special transfer payments will come to 2.156434 trillion yuan (including three billion yuan carried forward from previous years), an increase of 8.1%. The principle of either zero-increase or some reduction will be applied to special transfer payments unless otherwise stipulated on in specific policies. The main items that do have increased budgets for special transfer payments include:
First, budgets for education include 32.75 billion yuan in subsidies for renovating rural schools for compulsory education that are badly in need of improvement, up 6.3%; 14.788 billion yuan of earmarked funding for the initiative to strengthen the quality of modern vocational education, up 24.6%; and 40.492 billion yuan in financial assistance and subsidies to students, an increase of 18.7%.
Second, budgets for social security and medical and health care include 36.963 billion yuan in subsidies for entitled groups, an increase of 19.9%; 120.768 billion yuan in living allowances and subsidies for people facing financial difficulties, up 7.1%; 49.804 billion yuan in subsidies for public health services, up 8.7%; and 12.56 billion yuan in subsidies to public hospitals (including 3 billion yuan carried over from previous years).
Third, budgets for energy conservation and environmental protection include 11.55 billion yuan of funding for the prevention and control of air pollution, up 9.5%; 47.85 billion yuan in subsidies for energy conservation and the reduction of emissions, up 40.4%, which is principally because, in accordance with the plan for the reform of oil price-adjusting subsidies, subsidies for petroleum-fueled buses are to be transformed into subsidies for new-energy buses and integrated into the budget for spending on energy conservation and emission reduction; 17.617 billion yuan in subsidies for protecting natural forests, up 21.4%; and 30.865 billion yuan in central government special funding for returning cultivated land to forest, up 8.8%.
Fourth, budgets for agriculture include 20.158 billion yuan in subsidies for agricultural resource and ecological protection, up 12.1%; 15.245 billion yuan in subsidies for the expansion and servicing of agricultural technologies, up 20.9%; 42.756 billion yuan in subsidies for the construction of farmland irrigation and water conservancy infrastructure and water and soil conservation, an increase of 33.5%; and 35.089 billion yuan in subsidies for the forestry industry, up 15.7%.
Fifth, a total of 124.3 billion yuan in earmarked funds will be designated for use in financing government-subsidized housing projects in rural areas, an increase of 9.1%.
(2) Budgets for government-managed funds
The revenue budgeted for government-managed funds is compiled by taking into account a comprehensive range of factors including the revenue base, price changes, and policy adjustments while basing these considerations on the implementation of the equivalent budget from the previous year. The expenditure budgeted for government-managed funds is compiled in accordance with the principles of arranging expenditures based on revenue, keeping a balance between total expenditure and total revenue, and using designated funds for their intended purposes.
The revenue of central government-managed funds will total 436.387 billion yuan, up 11.7%. Adding the 72.072 billion yuan carried forward from last year, in 2015, the total revenue of central government-managed funds will reach 508.459 billion yuan. The expenditure from central government-managed funds will also be 508.459 billion yuan, up 25.4%. This figure is comprised of 366.928 billion yuan of central government spending, up 27.2%, and 141.531 billion yuan in transfer payments made to local governments, up 20.9%.
It is projected that the revenue of funds managed by local governments will total 4.450951 trillion yuan, down 4.7%. This figure includes 3.9452 trillion yuan from the sale of state-owned land-use rights, down 4.7%. Adding the 141.531 billion yuan in transfer payments from central government-managed funds, the projected total for the revenue of local government-managed funds is 4.592482 trillion yuan. Approval has been given by the State Council for special bonds to the total value of 100 billion yuan to be issued by local governments for the development of public-service programs that will yield a certain degree of revenue. The expenditure from local government-managed funds will total 4.692482 trillion yuan, up 2.6%. This figure includes 3.977877 trillion yuan of spending allocated from the proceeds of the sale of state-owned land-use rights, a decrease of 1.4%.
When the central and local budgets are combined, the projected figure for the revenue of the central and local government-managed funds stands at 4.887338 trillion yuan, down 3.5%. Including the 72.072 billion yuan carried forward from the previous year and 100 billion yuan in special bonds issued by local governments, the projected total revenue of government-managed funds nationwide comes to 5.05941 trillion yuan, with the expenditure from these funds also budgeted to total 5.05941 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.1%.
It should be noted that, following the incorporation of the revenue and expenditure of eleven government-managed funds, such as local education surcharge, into the general public budgets, there was a drop in the total budgetary revenue and expenditure of central and local government-managed funds in 2015. Due to this, we have lowered the base figures for 2014 accordingly, and can still calculate the increases on a comparable basis.
(3) Budgets for state capital operations
According to the scheme approved by the State Council for improving the government budgeting system, in 2015, we will take the following measures to improve the budgeting system for state capital operations.
The proportion of funds allocated from the central government's state capital operations budget to the general public budget will be further increased.
The areas of spending from the central government's state capital operations budget will be clearly delineated: apart from allocations for transferal into the general public budget or for replenishing social security funds, funds will be used primarily to cover expenditures for addressing longstanding problems of SOEs and their relevant reforms, injecting capital into SOEs, and providing them with policy-based subsidies.
Transfer payments to local governments made in the central government's state capital operations budget will be used in supporting SOEs under the central government and enterprises decentralized after 1998 in the coal, non-ferrous metal, defense, and other industries in addressing their longstanding problems and supporting efforts in completing the reform of collectively owned businesses operated by SOEs.
Some state-owned financial enterprises under the central government will be brought into the scope covered by the state capital operations budget.
In 2015, the revenue from state capital operations of the central government is estimated to be 155 billion yuan, up 9.9% over the previous year. Adding the 14.398 billion yuan carried over from last year, the projected total for revenue from state capital operations of the central government is 169.398 billion yuan. Expenditure from the central government's state capital operations budget will reach 169.398 billion yuan, up 19.4% over the previous year. Of this, 140.548 billion yuan is to be spent at the central level, including 23 billion yuan (an increase of 4.6 billion yuan over the previous year) to be allocated into the general public budget and spent on ensuring and improving people's living standards; 52.7 billion yuan to be spent on addressing the longstanding problems of SOEs and related reforms; 53.6 billion yuan earmarked for capital injection; 8.8 billion yuan to be used as subsidies for policy-based losses; and 2.448 billion yuan to be used for other expenditures. Total funds earmarked for transfer payments to local governments is 28.85 billion yuan.
The revenue from state capital operations of local governments is projected to reach 71.312 billion yuan. Adding the 28.85 billion yuan of transfer payments from the central government's state capital operations budget, the revenue in the budgets for local government state capital operations will total 100.162 billion yuan. Expenditure from the budgets for state capital operations of local governments is also projected to be 100.162 billion yuan.
Combining the central and local budgets, the projected total for national revenue from state capital operations is 226.312 billion yuan. Adding the 14.398 billion yuan carried over from the previous year, national revenue from state capital operations will total 240.71 billion yuan. The projected figure for national expenditure from the state capital operations budgets is also 240.71 billion yuan.
(4) Budgets for social security funds
The budget for revenue of social security funds is prepared taking into account factors including the implementation of the previous year's revenue budget, forecasted economic and social development for the current year, adjustments in social security policies, and plans for work related to social security.
Revenue from insurance premiums is budgeted on the basis of factors including the number of people paying contributions, insurance rates or fixed premium standards, the average pay rate from the previous year, and pay increases. The budget is then determined by combining these factors with the expansion of insurance coverage, the recovery of payment arrears, and so on.
Revenue from government subsidies is budgeted based on government subsidies to social security funds in the previous year and newly added government subsidies in the current year after adjusting for incomparable factors.
The budget for expenditure from the social security funds is prepared taking into consideration factors such as the implementation of the previous year's expenditure budget, projected changes to the number of people covered by the social security schemes and forecasted economic and social development for the current year, and adjustments in social security policies as well as changes in the benefits paid out from social security funds.
The revenue of social security funds is estimated to reach 4.308807 trillion yuan nationwide, up 10% over the previous year, including 3.163339 trillion yuan from insurance premiums and 974.175 billion yuan from government subsidies. Nationwide, the expenditure from social security funds will reach 3.846397 trillion yuan, up 14.2% over the previous year. With an estimated surplus of 462.41 billion yuan this year, the year-end balance is projected to reach 5.503286 trillion yuan after the balance from 2014 has been rolled over.
It should be noted that according to the revised Budget Law, after the beginning of a new financial year and before the approval of the draft central government budgets by the National People's Congress, arrangements may be made for the following expenditures:
carryover expenditures from the previous year;
basic expenditures of government departments, project expenditures, and transfer payments to lower-level governments that must be made in the current year, after referring to the amount of budgetary expenditures for the corresponding period of the previous year;
expenditures for which payment constitutes a legally prescribed obligation; and
expenditures to be used for dealing with natural disasters and other emergencies.
Based on the above stipulations, in January 2015, the central government made expenditures to the value of 751.2 billion yuan from the general public budget. This figure includes 132.9 billion yuan spent at the central level and 618.3 billion yuan in tax rebates and transfer payments made to local governments.
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