Economy

April inflation eases to 5.3 percent

Updated: 2011-05-11 18:01

BEIJING - China's surging inflation eased slightly in April as Beijing tightened controls to cool its overheated economy.

Consumer prices rose 5.3 percent over a year earlier, driven by an 11.5 percent jump in food costs, data showed Wednesday. That was down from March's 32-month high of 5.4 percent but exceeded forecasts by private sector analysts who expected a bigger decline.

"Inflation has taken a bit of a step back in April but that doesn't signal the end of China's problems," said IHS Global Insight analyst Alistair Thornton.

"Price pressures are still uncomfortably strong, but there are some signs in today's data that policy measures put in place over the last six months or so are having an impact," said Brian Jackson, economist with Royal Bank of Canada in Hong Kong.

Jackson said inflation remained high enough to warrant two more increases by the central bank in interest rates and further yuan appreciation against the dollar.

But several analysts said other data released on Wednesday, including figures that showed a slowdown in the pace of money supply and bank loans outstanding, suggested that the central bank could be less aggressive with monetary tightening in the months ahead.

"The April economic indicators make it less likely that the central bank will raise required reserve ratios or interest rates." said Shao Yu, an economist with Hongyuan Securities in Shanghai.

Beijing has hiked interest rates four times since October and ordered companies to hold down price increases.

M2 money supply growth of 15.3 percent was much lower than forecasts for 16.5 percent and also marked the lowest pace in 29 months.

Outstanding yuan loans at the end of April were 17.5 percent higher than a year earlier, also the weakest pace in 29 months, central bank data showed.

The government reported Tuesday that import growth slumped to 21.8 percent from March's rapid 32.6 percent. That reflected weaker demand for iron ore and other goods as government curbs reduced investment and construction.

Analysts blame the inflation on the dual pressures of rising consumer demand that is outstripping food supplies and a bank lending boom that was part of Beijing's response to the 2008 global crisis. Authorities are trying to raise food production and have clamped down on credit but it is expected to be months before those measures show results.

Prices of farm goods eased in April and China's main index of manufacturing activity declined, suggesting government efforts to cool an economy that grew by a rapid 9.7 percent in the first quarter were starting to gain traction.

The manufacturing figures "suggest that the Chinese economy is stabilizing to a more moderate pace of growth, and that the government's suite of policies to combat inflation is likely taking effect," said Jing Ulrich, JP Morgan's chairwoman of Global Markets for China, in a report to clients.

The government has a target of 4 percent annual inflation, but some analysts said it could be tough to achieve that goal given increasing labor costs and rising commodity and fuel prices.

Some commentators suggest inflation will force China's exporters to demand higher prices from customers in the United States, Europe and elsewhere. But analysts say they have yet to see that impact.

"There has been no direct pass-through from inflation in China to the price paid by importers of Chinese goods, a sign that Chinese firms are still able to absorb rising costs," said Mark Williams of Capital Economics in a report this week.