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China-US co-op on climate change crucial - expert

(chinadaily.com.cn)
Updated: 2009-06-10 19:58

Dear audience, this is Fu Jing from China Daily. And Welcome to China Daily webchat. Today I am with Daniel Dudek, chief economist of Environmental Defense Fund based in New York, discussing this round of China-US climate change talks which ended Wednesday in Beijing.

Q: Dr Dudek, What is context for discussions on climate cooperation between China and the US? How should any cooperative efforts between the US and China be judged?

A: In my opinion the view, widely held among western scientists, that warming of more than 2 degrees C. from pre-industrial levels could be catastrophic. It is vital to establish a mutual understanding that this limit defines the safe corridor of climate changes. Actions and commitments to action must be assessed from the standpoint of consistency with allowable emissions. Global emissions must peak and decline before 2020. This is not a political judgment, but the scientific assessment of the problem we face.

Q: How do you comment on the progress made so far between the two countries in terms of climate change talk? What will be required of the US and China?

A: For the US, it must establish a rigorous national program that caps and reduces greenhouse gases. Fortunately, the US Congress has embarked on development of a serious proposal, HR 2454, which will bring the US back into action at the international climate negotiations. This proposal from a very senior and seasoned legislator is a game changer which will not allow the US to use china as a non-action excuse any longer. However, it still must be passed into law and the Obama administration needs to put more political effort into this task.

For China, a new sober assessment of this problem needs to occur. The points raised by the national leading group on climate change chaired by Premier Wen's on June 5th are a good beginning. This group clearly understands the importance of energy efficiency. However, achieving these goals will require a comprehensive and systematic review of the real incentives that energy users face. Particular attention should be placed on non-compliance penalties. China needs to understand that its positioning on this climate will affect not only the US legislative process, but the prospects for an effective Copenhagen agreement, and a safer climate future.

Concerted efforts by both the US and China will be necessary to keep climate changes within a safe corridor this century.

Q: As an environmentalist, you believe in the force of market in addressing environmental problems and climate change. What role do you see for the global carbon market in Sino-US cooperation?

A: A carbon market is absolutely key to solving the climate problem and key to the core need for financing low carbon development.

Let me focus on the likely emergence of a US carbon market. I mentioned HR2454, the Waxman-Markey Bill. At its core, it would establish a national GHG emissions reduction market in the US and will have a profound impact on the international carbon market. The proposed legislation anticipates international trade in these reductions in various categories. However, in all cases, there will be rigorous qualifying criteria for market access. Put simply, access will require legally binding caps. And approach such as the failed Bush administration policy of trying to control the carbon intensity of the economy will not suffice to gain access. It is too easy to have intensity go down while total emissions rise. The atmosphere and the climate only care about the emissions. There is intense political pressure in the US to restrict international emissions trading, to keep the money invested at home. So, the focus is on the credibility of reductions and the consistency of transactions with the overall goal of maintaining a safe climate.

Caps on emissions coupled with joint work in each nation on building the institutional and technical capacity to implement these caps, has the power to break the link between economic growth and emissions growth, create powerful incentives to drive economic growth forward while driving emissions down, and enable America’s emerging carbon market to assist in financing China's transition to a low-carbon economy.

Q: We just finished an interview with the US chief climate change negotiator Todd Stern who is now visiting Beijing he stated that the United States is not going to push China to set mandatory targets on greenhouse gas emissions. How do you comment on this environmental stance?

A: I think that it is quite important to understand that this is an early process of engagement between the US Administration and China. People, I think, are really trying to understand the negotiating territory and what is in the art of the possible between the two nations. I think from my understanding and experience in the United States, it's important to remember that our executive branch, while very important in terms of determining overall US government positions, is only one element of our policy making governmental structure. The other, that I mentioned previously, is the Congress, and the Congress right now is definitely moving with respect to legislation. We have two houses of our Congress. One is the House and the other is the Senate. The Senate, of course, is the one that only has 100 members. It is, in many respects, more difficult to get legislation through. I want to just remind ourselves that a very prominent senator, in fact a former candidate for president of the United States, Senator John Kerry from Massachusetts, who is also the chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has said that there’s no way we are going to get an agreement in the US Senate unless they, meaning china, reduce their emissions. And we'll have to know that they are. If we don't get at it adequately, while the problem convincing colleagues hear that they are trying to do their share.

So I think, while it's understandable at this early stage of discussions between the two administrations, for these to proceed first on the issues of technical cooperation, I think as they proceed and our Congress continues to develop legislation that expectations will rise on the part of the United States in relation to what China will need to do. I think international expectations are going to rise in terms of what China needs to do, and I think most importantly we should reflect back on what it is that constitutes dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system and that's back to this issue about the allowable concentrations in the atmosphere and a safe corridor to climate change.