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Indian expert predicts economic recovery after July

(Xinhua)
Updated: 2008-11-21 14:29

NEW DELHI -- The present and next quarter will be bad for the Indian economy, while the recovery will begin after July 2009, an expert said, the Hindu reported Friday.

Addressing the members of the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) at an interactive session on "Global economic scenario- impact on India," Saumitra Chaudhuri, a member of Indian Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council said the global financial meltdown had hit banks, financial institutions and capital market in the United States. On the other hand, India presented a healthy picture, since it had relied primarily on agriculture.

The Indian banks were insulated from the meltdown. Farm output remained good, he said.

"Like in the past, the financial recession will not last more than six quarters. We have already witnessed a slump for four quarters. The next two quarters will be bad. Commodities, iron ore and meat will run into some difficulties," he said.

The people had already adjusted their consumption patterns, he said. In the coming days, money would be spent cautiously on market and consumption.

The economy would stabilize during the April-June quarter next year. From July on, things would change. However, it would not witness a quantum jump, he said.

Chaudhuri said the best option that Indian government should take was to keep investing in port, power and road projects.