The sharp fluctuation of two Chinese bank stocks in the past few days
indicated that an investment bubble is developing among Chinese financial stocks
due to the massive flow of funds into the A-share market.
With the
exuberant performance of the stock market in 2006 attracting an increasing flood
of funds into the A-share market, the market has grown massive enough for
investors to begin seeking short-term profits by taking on blue chips when they
used to speculate on comparatively smaller stocks.
This has caused the
share prices of bank stocks to climb astonishingly high compared to their book
value.
The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) and Bank of China, two of the country's major commercial banks,
had respectively jumped 76 percent and 37 percent by yesterday from their
listing last year, much higher than the growth rate of their foreign
counterparts such as Citigroup and Bank of America, which respectively saw 15
percent and 35 percent rises in 2006.
With a price per share hitting as
high as 6.7 yuan on January 4, the first trading day of 2007, the ICBC for the
first time became No 1 in terms of market value among all the listed banks in
the world.
While it takes at least five years for Chinese banks to catch
up with the world's leading banks in term of market performance, risk management
skills and corporate governance, the heavy speculation in Chinese financial
stocks has allowed their value to draw level in close to 70 days.
This
indicates that investors' fever has gone far beyond the bank's real value. World
leading investment banks such as Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan have already
issued warnings against a developing bubble in Chinese financial stocks, urging
investors to stop pursuing financial shares.
Their warnings were followed
by the central bank's announcement that it was raising the amount of funds
commercial banks are required to hold in reserve in a bid to dampen the
overheating stock market.
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