Policies, recovery raise hopes Q4 will help 2023 GDP expand by around 5%

China is well-positioned to meet its 2023 growth target of around 5 percent, thanks to robust policy support and a sustained recovery trend, according to officials and analysts.

Zheng Shanjie, head of the National Development and Reform Commission, expressed confidence China has the conditions and capabilities to foster consistent and steady economic improvement in the fourth quarter, thereby achieving this year's economic and social development objectives. This positive outlook is underpinned by a set of supportive measures taking effect gradually and the bolstered economic momentum.

In an interview with CCTV News on Friday, Zheng said the commission's focus is on optimizing the implementation of existing macroeconomic policies, expanding domestic demand, particularly consumer demand, and increasing effective investments.

In the forthcoming phase, additional emphasis will be placed on advancing the development of a modern industrial system and addressing operational challenges and issues faced by some enterprises.

Recent economic data showed China's economic activity is showing signs of stabilization, as the country reported stronger-than-expected 4.9 percent growth in the third quarter. In the first three quarters, China's GDP expanded by 5.2 percent year-on-year, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed.

"China's economic growth rate in the first three quarters significantly outperforms the 3 percent growth rate in 2022 and the average annual growth rate of 4.5 percent from 2020 to 2022," said Niu Li, deputy director of the Department of Economic Forecasting at the State Information Center.

"The growth rate also outpaces economies such as the United States, the eurozone economy, Japan, Brazil, Russia and South Africa, maintaining a leading position among the world's major economies."

Given the stimulus measures of recent months, the economy will stabilize in the coming months, meeting this year's growth target, Niu said.

In July, a key meeting of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee said the country must intensify the role of macroeconomic policies in regulating the economy, and make solid efforts to expand domestic demand, shore up confidence and prevent risks.

Since then, the country has pledged a series of efforts to stabilize overall growth, significantly boosting confidence and stabilizing market expectations.

For instance, the country's top legislature recently approved additional treasury bond issuances worth 1 trillion yuan ($137 billion) in the fourth quarter, suggesting the country is adopting a pro-growth stance and will likely take more steps to bolster the world's second-largest economy in the near term.

Louise Loo, lead economist at British think tank Oxford Economics, said the recent approval of the fiscal support package, coming out of the central government's balance sheet, is small by historical standards but more high-profile compared to past measures, signaling policymakers are on standby for further easing.

Loo said her team expects the fourth-quarter GDP to expand by 1.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, resulting in an annual growth rate of 5.2 percent, a revision from their previous forecast of 5.1 percent, given the third quarter's slight out-performance.