Abandoning policy would have severe consequences, experts say

With a large population of unvaccinated seniors and an already-stretched healthcare workforce, Shanghai cannot afford to relax its COVID-19 measures as it battles a severe wave of the Omicron variant, according to experts.

There could be severe consequences if the city deviated from the "dynamic zero-COVID strategy", including surging numbers of severe cases and deaths among the elderly, with hospitals overburdened, the experts said.

Given Shanghai's pivotal role in regional development, such negative effects would inevitably extend beyond the city and affect neighboring provinces and even farther afield, they added.

Since late February, Shanghai has reported more than 500,000 COVID-19 infections, with the number of daily cases topping 15,000 for weeks. With an approach aimed at stemming the spread of the virus in the shortest possible time, some areas are entering their fifth week of lockdown.

The apparent uninhibited spread of the Omicron variant, coupled with frustration over fragmented access to food and a lack of quarantine facilities, could lead Shanghai, the nation's financial powerhouse and most developed city, to start easing stringent control of the virus.

Zhang Wenhong, head of the infectious disease department at Huashan Hospital Affiliated to Fudan University in Shanghai, said during a forum on Thursday: "The Omicron strain is indeed a formidable enemy … What we continue to be most worried about, and what we cannot let go, are the elderly and vulnerable populations, who are not rid of the grim risk posed by the virus."

Some 23.4 percent of Shanghai's population is age 60 or older, compared with a national average of 18.7 percent. The city's elderly population alone－about 5.8 million people－is more than the entire population of Singapore, official data show.

However, as of April 15, only 62 percent of seniors in Shanghai were fully vaccinated, while 38 percent had received a booster shot, local health authorities said. Singapore, by the middle of this month, had fully vaccinated more than 95 percent of people age 60 or older, according to public data.

Xu Gang, associate professor at Shanghai Jiao Tong University's School of Public Health, told Jiefang Daily: "Even though many people infected with Omicron only exhibit mild symptoms, research data has shown that the variant can seriously harm the elderly, especially those who are unvaccinated. It is absolutely not a seasonal flu of a larger size."

Without "lightning fast" measures to curb the virus' spread, a large number of severe cases and deaths would occur among seniors and exert "unendurable pain on families and society", Xu said.

In Hong Kong, the heavy toll taken by a fifth wave of COVID-19 has served as a sobering reminder of the threat posed by the Omicron variant.

In a study released on April 14, researchers from the University of Hong Kong concluded that the fast spread of Omicron and low vaccination coverage among the elderly had resulted in a staggeringly high death count－more than 8,000－in the city.

Even though the strain appears to be milder in animals and case studies in South Africa, the university found that in Hong Kong, the fatality risk for unvaccinated Omicron cases during the early stages of the fifth wave was nearly identical to that for patients infected during earlier waves.

The death toll in Shanghai is rising. As of Sunday, the city had reported 138 COVID-19 deaths, 196 severe cases and 23 critical cases, mainly among unvaccinated seniors with underlying illnesses.

Xu said: "Throughout China, at least 40 million seniors have not been fully inoculated. Door-to-door vaccination services are suggested as a means to boost immunization among this age group. For Shanghai, we also need to devote more efforts to raising the vaccination rate among the elderly."