Experts say fiscal, other moves likely to improve overall trade structure as well

Despite several challenges, China will likely adopt more efficient fiscal and other measures to boost exports and improve overall trade as well as its structure in 2022, experts said.

"Growth in exports is likely to be around 8 to 10 percent year-on-year for next year, in contrast to the annual two-digit growth rates so far," said Huo Jianguo, vice-chairman of the Beijing-based China Society for World Trade Organization Studies.

As China's economic growth faces threefold pressure from shrinking demand, supply shocks and weakening expectations, the annual Central Economic Work Conference held earlier this month emphasized growth stability as the priority of next year's economic work.

The top conference also urged more measures to stabilize foreign trade and safeguard industrial and supply chains.

Huo said China's export growth may feel some pinch next year from the output and supply recovery in Southeast Asian economies and rising protectionism around the world.

Zhou Xuezhi, a researcher with the Institute of World Economics and Politics, which is part of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said he believes expected pullback of fiscal and monetary stimulus in developed economies will weaken their demand, which will likely have an impact on China's exports.

Yet, China's foreign trade will sustain sound growth next year, although it may not be as sharp as this year's rate, experts stressed.

The nation's foreign trade during the first 11 months of this year totaled 35.39 trillion yuan ($5.56 trillion), up 22 percent year-on-year, and more than the 32.16 trillion yuan recorded for the whole of last year, Customs data showed.

Exports soared by nearly 22 percent year-on-year to 19.58 trillion yuan during the period.

Lu Feng, a professor in economics with the National School of Development, which is part of Peking University, said the sharp rise in productivity in the manufacturing sector has resulted in China's economic strength, which could help in meeting stronger demand from developed economies. At the same time, other emerging economies may fail to meet such rising demand due to supply disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

"Such competitiveness will carry on, especially under the uncertainty of the pandemic, even with the sizable appreciation of the renminbi over the recent period that has had a somewhat constraining impact on China's exports," he said.

Lu said stronger fiscal actions like rapid expenditure to boost infrastructure construction will inject new growth impetus into market entities, including foreign trade businesses.

He also said he expects more targeted support from financial institutions in the form of low-interest loans for the real economy, especially for small and micro businesses.

Besides, other foreseeable policy measures like support for the science and innovation ecosystem are also expected to boost employment and stabilize economic growth, which will ultimately facilitate growth in foreign trade, he said.

Huo, vice-chairman of the society for WTO studies, suggested the government should improve policy transparency and consistency, and enhance communications with market entities, to stabilize expectations and thereby stimulate investment in the private sector and expand exports.

He also suggested the authorities concerned should bolster imports, while vigorously developing digital trade and trade in services to improve China's foreign trade structure.