On the other hand, Liu added, both power and transportation sectors will see significant increase in demand but they also have low-carbon alternatives. The use of renewable and non-fossil energy in the power industry will further increase, the level of which will be determined by technological competitiveness and policy-making.

In transportation, the increasing market share of electric vehicles will bring forward the peak date and reduce the peak level of the industry. Future development will still be influenced by the cost of batteries, infrastructure construction and policies.

The research result echoes the 2017 China Carbon Price Survey which collected views from 260 interested parties on China’s carbon market. Around 82 percent of respondents expect that China's carbon emissions will peak in 2030 or earlier, and 55 percent of respondents believe that the peak will be in 2025 or earlier.

Peak even earlier

Zhou Dadi, former director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, believes it is likely that China will peak carbon emissions from 2020 to 2025.

“Peaking as early as 2020 to 2025 will not have a negative impact on the Chinese economy as long as we don't make mistakes,” said Zhou.

Zhou, however, expressed concern about the current development in the energy industry.

“Many investments are inappropriate and blind. High-energy-consuming industries are still expanding. Many power plants are being built but do not generate electricity well. All of these will lead to a rebound of coal consumption.

“China’s development should no longer adopt the model of scale expansion and we must look for new growth momentum.

“If we can ensure that low-carbon development facilitate of China’s economic restructure instead of hindering economic development, we believe that considering the current real estate market and infrastructure construction, it is reasonable that it will peak by 2025.”

Possibly it is on the grounds of these arguments that Xie expressed his confidence on China’s peaking date at the end of the reunion with Stern.