In 2016, the UK exported slightly more than half of the 5 million tons of cardboard and paper collected in the country, according to the UK Environment Agency.

That same year, the UK collected more than 1 million tons of scrap plastic for reprocessing – only a third of that was recycled domestically, with the rest exported to other nations such as China.

Prior to the ban, the UK sent 1.4 million tons of mixed paper and cardboard a year to China. And environmental organization Greenpeace estimates that between 2012 and 2017, Britain sent 2.7 million tons of scrap plastic to China.

"Stuff is only recycled in the UK where there are systems in place that create value," Goodwin said. "The waste that doesn't have a system – which is the majority – is put into landfills, incinerated, or exported."

Plastic waste is currently a hot topic in the UK. The issue of global plastic pollution reached a wide audience through the BBC documentary Blue Planet II. And media reports on the China ban let Britons know just how much of their waste went from their homes to other countries. A quarter of the scrap plastic sent from the UK to China originated in households.

UK Recycling Association Chief Executive Simon Ellin said the government had been "asleep at the wheel"prior to the debate in the media and among the public.

China began phasing in waste restrictions four years ago, before stopping most plastic and paper last July. Ellin wrote a letter to the government in September calling for urgent action in light of the ban.

In November, UK Environment Secretary Michael Gove was criticized when he told the Environmental Audit Committee he had "not given sufficient thought" to China's looming ban. Two months later, Gove handed out reusable coffee cups to members of the British cabinet.

"I recognize that China's decision will cause some issues in the short term for recycling in the UK," Gove said in Parliament. "We will continue to work closely with industry, the Environment Agency, local authorities and all interested parties to manage those issues."

This month, UK Prime Minister Theresa May delivered her first major speech on the environment, saying the government will target the nation's "throwaway culture" and eliminate single-use plastics by 2042.

The waste export industry began reacting some time ago to the China ban. Viridor Resource Management stopped exporting waste from the UK to China last year, as did SUEZ Recycling and Recovery UK, which now channels exports into alternative markets in Asia and Europe. Waste management company Veolia UK said none of its plastic now leaves Europe.

Data for the third quarter of last year shows increases in UK exports of plastics to Turkey, Taiwan, Vietnam, and Malaysia and increases in exports of paper to Turkey, Taiwan, and Vietnam.

How much of the capacity that was once handled by China will now be taken up by other nations remains to be seen. Exporting to China is cheaper than exporting to most other nations because it benefits from a reverse logistics model in which waste exports fill empty shipping containers that had arrived in the UK from China full of imported goods that need to be shipped back, whether empty or full.

The fear is that landfill and incineration – as well as the illegal shipping of waste – will become more commonplace among nations with a lack of recycling infrastructure.

"Our recycling systems in the UK are ineffective – we urgently need more investment to build infrastructure and improve our collection systems," Goodwin said.