The cease-fire with the Kachins didn't hold and the conflict became bloodier. Having held four strategic highland areas in the region, the KIA has been beaten back and now occupies only one, which overlooks Laiza.

No Kachin delegates were allowed to participate in Myanmar's elections in 2008 and the long-standing distrust and hatred between them and the government in the capital, Nay Pyi Taw, is not likely to be eradicated easily, said He Shengda.

Two Myanmar girls look in on lessons at a temporary classroom at the Je Yang Hka refugee camp.

Xiong Liying, an assistant researcher at Yunnan Academy of Social Sciences, said more than 90 percent of Kachins are Christians, following activity by British missionaries in the 1870s, while most Myanmar people are Buddhists. "The differences in belief might obstruct negotiations. The Myanmar government should consider a new policy, one that would be acceptable to the ethnic groups," she said.

"The government of Kachin overestimated the KIA's military power, and the Myanmar forces are better equipped. More important, the Kachins misjudged the situation and believed that Western powers, especially the United States and a number of European countries, would provide backing. But the US is normalizing bilateral relations with Myanmar and won't exert much pressure on the government now," said Xiong.

Myanmar announced a unilateral cease-fire on Jan 18 following a visit by Fu Ying, the Chinese vice-minister of foreign affairs.

Peace talks are the only, and most correct, way of solving the conflict, said Hong Lei, a spokesman for the Chinese foreign ministry, on Monday. "We urged the parties to achieve a cease-fire after peace talks. China will continue to play a constructive role in maintaining peace and stability on the China-Myanmar border," he added on Tuesday.

However, Xiong pointed out that several meetings between the Myanmar government and the KIA last year failed to broker a new bilateral cease-fire. "It depends on what the two sides want from the cease-fire. Once that is known, we'll have a better idea of when this war will end," she said.

Li Yingqing, Guo Anfei and Zhang Yunbi contributed to this story.

Contact the reporter at huyongqi@chinadaily.com.cn